印度為何現(xiàn)在向塔利班伸出援手 - 網(wǎng)友腦洞大開：印度應(yīng)該慢慢吞并阿富汗，這將為該地區(qū)帶來和平

Why India is reaching out to the Taliban now

2025-01-21 猛踹瘸子那條好腿 5082 45 3 收藏糾錯(cuò)&舉報(bào)

譯文簡(jiǎn)介

印度最近與阿富汗塔利班政府的外交接觸標(biāo)志著印度對(duì)該地區(qū)地緣政治現(xiàn)實(shí)的看法發(fā)生了明顯轉(zhuǎn)變。

正文翻譯

India's latest diplomatic outreach to Afghanistan's Taliban government signals a marked shift in how it sees the geopolitical reality in the region.

印度最近與阿富汗塔利班政府的外交接觸標(biāo)志著印度對(duì)該地區(qū)地緣政治現(xiàn)實(shí)的看法發(fā)生了明顯轉(zhuǎn)變。

This comes more than three years after India suffered a major strategic and diplomatic blow when Kabul fell to the Taliban.

三年多前，喀布爾落入塔利班之手，印度遭受了重大的戰(zhàn)略和外交打擊。

Two decades of investment in Afghanistan's democracy - through military training, scholarships and landmark projects like building its new parliament - were swiftly undone. The collapse also paved the way for greater influence from regional rivals, particularly Pakistan and China, eroding India's strategic foothold and raising new security concerns.

印度二十年來對(duì)阿富汗民主的投資--通過軍事訓(xùn)練、獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金和建設(shè)新議會(huì)等標(biāo)志性項(xiàng)目--迅速化為烏有。阿富汗的崩潰也為來自地區(qū)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，尤其是巴基斯坦和中國(guó)的更大影響力鋪平了道路，侵蝕了印度的戰(zhàn)略立足點(diǎn)，并引發(fā)了新的安全問題。

評(píng)論翻譯

In my opinion India's engagement with the Taliban sends a message to Pakistan: "If you cause trouble on our eastern border using Bangladesh, we'll respond by influencing Afghanistan." At the same time, India doesn't have many options. If they do nothing and only complain about human rights abuses or treatment of women, China might step in, strengthen its control, and make Afghanistan dependent on it. While this strategy may not seem entirely ethical, it's a smart move in terms of foreign policy. ? by terra_aten (↑ 305/ ↓ 0)

在我看來，印度與塔利班的接觸向巴基斯坦傳遞了一個(gè)信息："如果你們利用孟加拉國(guó)在我國(guó)東部邊境制造麻煩，我們將以影響阿富汗作為回應(yīng)"。同時(shí)，印度也沒有太多選擇。如果他們什么都不做，只是抱怨侵犯人權(quán)或婦女待遇，中國(guó)可能會(huì)介入，加強(qiáng)控制，讓阿富汗依附于中國(guó)。雖然這一策略似乎并不完全合乎道德，但就外交政策而言，卻是明智之舉。

The Taliban is tearing itself apart with an internal split from the Haqqani Network, and it’s clear they’re struggling to keep it together. Without a strong ally to back them up, they’re in real trouble—especially with ISKP lurking in the shadows, ready to pounce on their weakness.https://thediplomat.com/2024/12/is-the-haqqani-network-parting-ways-with-the-taliban-regime/ ? by telephonecompany (↑ 60/ ↓ 0)

由于哈卡尼網(wǎng)絡(luò)（Haqqani Network）的內(nèi)部分裂，塔利班正在分崩離析，很明顯他們正在努力維持團(tuán)結(jié)。如果沒有強(qiáng)大的盟友支持，他們將面臨真正的麻煩--尤其是 ISKP 潛伏在暗處，隨時(shí)準(zhǔn)備抓住他們的弱點(diǎn)。https://thediplomat.com/2024/12/is-the-haqqani-network-parting-ways-with-the-taliban-regime/

It's all about access to Central Asia.These are our desperate attempts to have access to valuable ports (and roads), which are all slowly getting into the hands of China. With Pakistan allying with China, India's only option is to maintain good relationships with the next chunk of land in the way which is Afghanistan. It's just a blind bet, because Afghanistan has no reason not to ally more with China if they offer better deals, or play a double game.If India complains about human rights issues in Afghanistan, they can simply point fingers back at the way Indian treats its minorities, especially Musli.... Indian doesn't have any upper hand there. All this is happening now only because the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has gone downhill a bit. India is using this opportune moment to step in.And it goes to show that BJP has no issues aligning itself with its enemies in principle to get more power. Even back then, the Hindu Mahasabha aligned itself with the Muslim League to sabotage the freedom struggle movement spearheaded by the Indian National Congress. They stoop to any low for power. ? by El_Impresionante (↑ 5/ ↓ 0)

這些都是我們?yōu)楂@得寶貴的港口（和道路）而做出的絕望嘗試，而這些港口（和道路）正慢慢落入中國(guó)之手。隨著巴基斯坦與中國(guó)結(jié)盟，印度唯一的選擇就是與下一塊擋路的土地--阿富汗保持良好關(guān)系。如果印度抱怨阿富汗的人權(quán)問題，他們可以簡(jiǎn)單地將矛頭指向印度對(duì)待少數(shù)民族的方式，尤其是穆斯林。印度在那里沒有任何優(yōu)勢(shì)?，F(xiàn)在發(fā)生的這一切只是因?yàn)榘突固购桶⒏缓怪g的關(guān)系有點(diǎn)走下坡路。這也表明，印度人民黨為了獲得更多權(quán)力，在原則上與敵人結(jié)盟是毫無問題的。即使在當(dāng)時(shí)，印度教大公會(huì)（Hindu Mahasabha）也曾與穆斯林聯(lián)盟結(jié)盟，破壞印度國(guó)大黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的自由斗爭(zhēng)運(yùn)動(dòng)。為了權(quán)力，他們不擇手段。

off topic but this explanation sounds like how literature teachers start yapping stuff from a single sentence. no offence though. ? by FedMates (↑ -64/ ↓ 0)

雖然離題了，但這個(gè)解釋聽起來就像文學(xué)老師從一句話就開始喋喋不休。
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That's only because your attention span has been destroyed by the constant mindless consumption of reels, shorts and/or probably tik toks. ? by ronnie_axlerod (↑ 28/ ↓ 0)

那只是因?yàn)槟愕淖⒁饬σ呀?jīng)被無意義的消費(fèi)券、短褲和/或可能是 tiktoks 破壞了。

eh? I just pointed out a similarity between real life and reddit, how fragile does your ego has to be to be offended by a reddit comment. ? by FedMates (↑ -18/ ↓ 0)

嗯？我只是指出了現(xiàn)實(shí)生活和 reddit 之間的相似之處，你的自尊心得有多脆弱，才會(huì)被 reddit 上的評(píng)論冒犯。

Well frankly I am not offended. I am just pointing out facts. I have seen and heard your argument a thousand times. 999/1000 times the person who makes this kind of an argument has their attention span destroyed by reels/tik toks/shorts etc. So I think I am not off the mark here. If you can't appreciate Literature teachers going off on a tangent related to the initial topic they started discussing on, and think that that discussion has no value, then the problem is with you, not with them. ? by ronnie_axlerod (↑ 20/ ↓ 0)

老實(shí)說，我并沒有被冒犯。我只是在指出事實(shí)。你的論點(diǎn)我見過無數(shù)次，也聽過無數(shù)次。999/1000次提出這種論點(diǎn)的人的注意力都被優(yōu)惠券/錄音筆/短褲等毀掉了。因此，我認(rèn)為我的觀點(diǎn)沒有偏差。如果你不能理解文學(xué)教師偏離了他們開始討論的話題，并認(rèn)為這種討論沒有價(jià)值，那么問題出在你身上，而不是他們。

“999/1000”Making up a bs statistic is another thing a literature teacher might do ? by WhoE1AmI (↑ -7/ ↓ 0)

"999/1000 "編造一個(gè)無稽的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)是文學(xué)老師可能會(huì)做的另一件事

Atleast he could convey his point and it's easy to understand ? by SomewhereLast7928 (↑ 5/ ↓ 0)

至少他能表達(dá)自己的觀點(diǎn)，而且通俗易懂

Enemy of enemy is a "friend" ? by GolgappaProMax (↑ 36/ ↓ 0)

敵人的敵人是 "朋友"

In the old days when India was much more unified, Afghanistan was the north west “frontier” ? by ShallotteSophie (↑ 96/ ↓ 0)

在印度更加統(tǒng)一的過去，阿富汗是印度西北部的 "邊疆"

north west frontier became part of british india after durrand line agreement, now called khyber pakhtunkhwa,ethnic afghan but pakistani. ? by aaqib_xo (↑ 14/ ↓ 0)

西北邊境在杜蘭線協(xié)議后成為英屬印度的一部分，現(xiàn)在稱為開伯爾-普赫?qǐng)D赫瓦（Khyber Pakhtunkhwa），阿富汗族，但屬于巴基斯坦。

That’s not true. It’s giving “we wuz kangzzz” vibes ? by TastyTranslator6691 (↑ 5/ ↓ 0)

這不是真的。它給人一種 "我們是強(qiáng)盜 "的感覺。

Wake up and smell the coffee. We cannot wish away taliban, we can only adapt to the emerging situation. ? by upscaspi (↑ 36/ ↓ 0)

醒醒吧，聞聞咖啡。我們不能希望塔利班消失，我們只能適應(yīng)新出現(xiàn)的形勢(shì)。

All this tells how religion is a sham that powerful people shove down normal peoples throats to keep them mindless while they continue being powerful. ? by Impressive-Career696 (↑ 26/ ↓ 0)

所有這一切都說明，宗教是權(quán)勢(shì)者強(qiáng)塞給普通人的一個(gè)騙局，目的是讓他們保持無知，同時(shí)繼續(xù)保持權(quán)勢(shì)。

Religion is an instrument to control the masses, to further interests, to gain populous support , nothing more nothing less ? by Ok-Significance4524 (↑ 3/ ↓ 0)

宗教是控制大眾、謀求利益、獲得民眾支持的工具，僅此而已
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true this is the case to some extent with all ideologies if you read some machiavelli, if you want to go the realism route of being cynical about self interests in ideas then take it to it's logical conclusion with liberal democracy and burgeiose or socialism and herd morality or socrates being ugly. etc. ? by [dexed] (↑ 1/ ↓ 0)

如果你想走現(xiàn)實(shí)主義路線，對(duì)思想中的自我利益憤世嫉俗，那么自由民主和布爾喬亞、社會(huì)主義和羊群道德、蘇格拉底的丑陋等等，都是合乎邏輯的結(jié)論。

Our borders are so ffd up that taliban is our ally(kind of:/) ? by ScruDaFerrari (↑ 31/ ↓ 0)

我們的邊界被嚴(yán)重破壞，塔利班成了我們的盟友（有點(diǎn)：/）

modi taking tips for efficient dictatorship rule ? by blu_volcano (↑ -3/ ↓ 0)

莫迪獲取高效DC統(tǒng)治的秘訣

Do you think we have a choice?Look at our borders ? by Due-Cantaloupe888 (↑ 22/ ↓ 0)

你認(rèn)為我們還有選擇嗎？看看我們的邊界
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Maybe tell them to not destroy ancient Buddhist statues. ? by absurdonihilist (↑ 3/ ↓ 0)

也許可以告訴他們不要破壞古代佛像。

Religious extrimist regime Religious extremist regime ? by AKK_1733 (↑ -8/ ↓ 0)

宗教極端政權(quán) 宗教極端政權(quán)

Various reasons 1) trade reasons : we have access of chabhar and through chabhar via Afghanistan we gain access to Central Asian countries to increase our trade and Economy2) recent events: Pakistan raided afghanistan in return afghanistan raided Pakistan so afghanistan is now a good ally against Pakistan they try to destabilize our Northern states in return afghanistan destabilizes their western border3) India wants to establish its presence as a hegemon in India subcontinent region and for that good rls with afg is necessary 4) afg can be helpful in Military operations in pakistan ? by Ok-Significance4524 (↑ 1/ ↓ 0)

各種原因 1) 貿(mào)易原因：我們可以進(jìn)入恰卜哈爾，通過恰卜哈爾經(jīng)由阿富汗進(jìn)入中亞國(guó)家，從而增加我們的貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì) 2) 近期事件：巴基斯坦襲擊了阿富汗，作為回應(yīng)，阿富汗襲擊了巴基斯坦，因此阿富汗現(xiàn)在是反對(duì)巴基斯坦的好盟友，他們?cè)噲D破壞我國(guó)北部各邦的穩(wěn)定，作為回應(yīng)，阿富汗破壞了他們西部邊境的穩(wěn)定3）印度希望在印度次大陸地區(qū)建立霸主地位，為此，與阿富汗建立良好的關(guān)系是必要的4）阿富汗可以在巴基斯坦的軍事行動(dòng)中提供幫助

Also it won't be really favourable for us if afghanistan tilts towards chinas side ? by Ok-Significance4524 (↑ 1/ ↓ 0)

此外，如果阿富汗向中國(guó)方面傾斜，對(duì)我們也不是很有利

I don't want India to be ruled by the taliban(I'm just some minor who doesn't get involved in politics but I just hope the Taliban stays far far away) ? by Vindicatress19Cool (↑ 1/ ↓ 0)

我不希望印度被塔利班統(tǒng)治（我只是個(gè)不參與政治的未成年人，但我只希望塔利班離得遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)的）

in geopolitics there's no friends or enemies but temporary interests. ? by [dexed] (↑ 1/ ↓ 0)

在地緣政治中，沒有朋友或敵人，只有暫時(shí)的利益。

Wow after doing all this Hindu-Muslim to win(or should I say Rig) elections now he is talking to Muslim leadership of Taliban. Let's just wait till they hear about all the communal oppressions taking place in India and thn we will see if they would evn want to talk. ? by Gujju_Brahmin (↑ -34/ ↓ 0)

哇，在印度教和穆斯林為贏得（或者應(yīng)該說是 "傀儡"）選舉而大動(dòng)干戈之后，他現(xiàn)在又開始與塔利班的穆斯林領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人交談了。等他們聽說了印度發(fā)生的所有族群壓迫事件后，再看看他們是否還想談?wù)劙伞?/b>

Lol. As per you, the Taliban will say India is communal!!! Guess you are from Pakistan/Bangladesh lurking here? ? by Praveen_pr7 (↑ 12/ ↓ 0)

笑死我了按照你的說法，塔利班會(huì)說印度是社區(qū)！?。∥也履闶菑陌突固?孟加拉潛伏到這里的吧？

If you think foreign policy works on local communal issues you got it wrong. India is very close to a lot Gulf Muslim states. If Taliban is okay with Indian treatment of Musli... then what’s the problem ? by goshdagny (↑ 38/ ↓ 0)

如果你認(rèn)為外交政策對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)厣鐓^(qū)問題有效，那你就錯(cuò)了。印度與許多海灣穆斯林國(guó)家關(guān)系密切。如果塔利班對(duì)印度對(duì)待穆斯林的態(tài)度沒意見，那還有什么問題

Of course they will. India is one of the few partners that they have left. They're not going to squander it. ? by souvik234 (↑ 11/ ↓ 0)

他們當(dāng)然會(huì)這么做。印度是他們?yōu)閿?shù)不多的合作伙伴之一。他們不會(huì)浪費(fèi)它。

They will surely have China. India they would want to partner, but with this current govt, that's the question. ? by Gujju_Brahmin (↑ -19/ ↓ 0)

他們肯定會(huì)有中國(guó)。他們希望與印度合作，但目前的政府是個(gè)問題。

I mean the Gulf countries still have good ties with China. So I don't think that's much of a determining factor. ? by souvik234 (↑ 1/ ↓ 0)

我的意思是，海灣國(guó)家與中國(guó)仍然保持著良好的關(guān)系。所以我不認(rèn)為這是決定性因素。
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Not right now, since China will likely not want to antagonize it's relationship with Pakistan. ? by souvik234 (↑ 1/ ↓ 0)

現(xiàn)在還不行，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)可能不想與巴基斯坦的關(guān)系對(duì)立起來。

Kudos to all that jaishankar sigma memes, that the general public thinks India is doing astonishingly great in the field of External Affairs. ? by Ok-Instruction-1140 (↑ -20/ ↓ 0)

在印度，人們認(rèn)為印度在對(duì)外事務(wù)領(lǐng)域做得非常出色，這一點(diǎn)值得稱贊。

India does well in external affairs in general, especially after 1962.It’s not Jaishankar but the credibility and legacy of MEA ? by catbutreallyadog (↑ 10/ ↓ 0)

印度在對(duì)外事務(wù)中總體表現(xiàn)良好，尤其是在 1962 年之后。這不是杰森卡爾的問題，而是外交部的信譽(yù)和傳統(tǒng)

Indias MEA is at its very worst right now with- Bangladesh threatening India for providing asylum to S.Hasina- Sri Lanka caught in the debt trap of C- pakistan, we all know- India joining hands with Taliban is important for us but sends a wrong message in international politics. - Nepal accepting the best and road initiatives - Canada , everyone is aware. - China and it's encroachments although things have deescalated now.Even during Italian sailors case, the west and the EU were not this against India / Indians.With Russia all thanks to Khurschev and Nehru. ? by Ok-Instruction-1140 (↑ 2/ ↓ 0)

孟加拉威脅印度為哈西娜提供庇護(hù)--斯里蘭卡陷入C的債務(wù)陷阱--巴基斯坦，我們都知道--印度與塔利班聯(lián)手對(duì)我們很重要，但卻在國(guó)際政治中發(fā)出了錯(cuò)誤的信息。- 尼泊爾接受了 "最佳道路計(jì)劃"--加拿大，眾所周知。- 即使在意大利水兵事件中，西方和歐盟也沒有如此反對(duì)印度/印度人。

Afghanistan has around $1 Trillion USD in precious metals https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/business/afghanistan-lithium-rare-earths-mining/index.html India should slowly annex it and that will bring peace to the area. ? by Joshistotle (↑ -4/ ↓ 0)

阿富汗擁有約 1 萬億美元的貴金屬 https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/business/afghanistan-lithium-rare-earths-mining/index.html 印度應(yīng)該慢慢吞并阿富汗，這將為該地區(qū)帶來和平。

Only catch is: It will take $2-3 Trillion USD to build the roads, infrastructure, mines, and processing facilities. For this Indian Oligarchs will use and under pay Indian Labour. ? by aaffpp (↑ 2/ ↓ 0)

唯一的問題是修建道路、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、礦山和加工設(shè)施需要 2-3 萬億美元。為此，印度寡頭們將使用印度勞工，并降低其工資。

Generated from AIIndia's Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, recently met with Afghanistan's acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Dubai. This engagement marks India's highest-level interaction with the Taliban government since its takeover of Kabul in 2021. The fall of Kabul to the Taliban over three years ago was a significant setback for India. Two decades of investments in Afghanistan's democracy—including military training, scholarships, and infrastructure projects like the new parliament building—were swiftly undone. This collapse allowed regional rivals, particularly Pakistan and China, to increase their influence, diminishing India's strategic presence and raising security concerns.In the recent meeting, the Taliban expressed interest in strengthening political and economic ties with India, acknowledging it as a "significant regional and economic power." Discussions focused on expanding trade and utilizing Iran's Chabahar port, which India has been developing to bypass Pakistan's ports in Karachi and Gwadar. This diplomatic outreach indicates a shift in India's approach toward the Taliban.

印度外交大臣維克拉姆-米斯里（Vikram Misri）最近在迪拜會(huì)見了阿富汗代理外交部長(zhǎng)阿米爾-汗-穆塔基（Amir Khan Muttaqi）。這次接觸標(biāo)志著印度自 2021 年塔利班政府接管喀布爾以來與塔利班政府進(jìn)行的最高級(jí)別的互動(dòng)。三年多前喀布爾落入塔利班之手，這對(duì)印度來說是一個(gè)重大挫折。二十年來對(duì)阿富汗民主的投資--包括軍事訓(xùn)練、獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金和新議會(huì)大廈等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目--迅速化為烏有。在最近的會(huì)晤中，塔利班表示有意加強(qiáng)與印度的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系，承認(rèn)印度是 "重要的地區(qū)和經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)"。討論的重點(diǎn)是擴(kuò)大貿(mào)易和利用伊朗的恰巴哈爾港，印度一直在開發(fā)該港口，以繞過巴基斯坦的卡拉奇港和瓜達(dá)爾港。這次外交接觸表明印度對(duì)塔利班的態(tài)度發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變。

By engaging at this level, India is granting the Taliban a degree of de facto legitimacy, which the group has been seeking from the international community since its return to power. Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center notes that this is particularly significant given India's historically unfriendly relations with the Taliban, marking a diplomatic triumph for the group.Since the Taliban's return, countries have varied in their approaches, balancing diplomatic engagement with concerns over human rights and security. China, for instance, has actively engaged with the Taliban government, focusing on security and economic interests, and has even appointed an ambassador to Afghanistan. While no country has formally recognized the Taliban government, up to 40 countries maintain some form of diplomatic or informal relations. India had previously maintained contact through a foreign service diplomat and had closed its consulates during the civil war in the 1990s, reopening them in 2002 after the war ended. Former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, Jayant Prasad, views the recent engagement as a step up in relations, emphasizing India's "historical and civilizational ties" with Afghanistan.India has invested over $3 billion in more than 500 projects across Afghanistan, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals, and clinics. It has trained Afghan officers, awarded thousands of scholarships, and built a new parliament building, reflecting a lasting geopolitical reality.

通過這一層面的接觸，印度正在給予塔利班一定程度的事實(shí)上的合法性，而這正是該組織自重新掌權(quán)以來一直在向國(guó)際社會(huì)尋求的。威爾遜中心的邁克爾-庫格爾曼（Michael Kugelman）指出，鑒于印度歷來與塔利班的不友好關(guān)系，這一點(diǎn)尤為重要，標(biāo)志著該組織在外交上取得了勝利。自塔利班復(fù)辟以來，各國(guó)采取了不同的做法，在外交接觸與人權(quán)和安全問題之間尋求平衡。例如，中國(guó)積極與塔利班政府接觸，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注安全和經(jīng)濟(jì)利益，甚至任命了一名駐阿富汗大使。雖然沒有任何國(guó)家正式承認(rèn)塔利班政府，但仍有多達(dá) 40 個(gè)國(guó)家保持著某種形式的外交或非正式關(guān)系。印度曾通過一名外交官與阿富汗保持聯(lián)系，并在 20 世紀(jì) 90 年代內(nèi)戰(zhàn)期間關(guān)閉了領(lǐng)事館，但在 2002 年戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)結(jié)束后又重新開放了領(lǐng)事館。印度前駐阿富汗大使賈揚(yáng)特-普拉薩德（Jayant Prasad）認(rèn)為最近的接觸是兩國(guó)關(guān)系的一個(gè)進(jìn)步，并強(qiáng)調(diào)了印度與阿富汗的 "歷史和文明聯(lián)系"。印度培訓(xùn)了阿富汗軍官，頒發(fā)了數(shù)千份獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金，并建造了一座新的議會(huì)大樓，這反映了一個(gè)持久的地緣政治現(xiàn)實(shí)。

Regardless of the regime in Kabul—monarchical, com...st, or Islamist—there has been a natural warmth between Delhi and Kabul.Interestingly, relations between India and the Taliban appear to be easing amid rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan claims that the hardline Pakistani Taliban (TTP) operates from sanctuaries in Afghanistan. In July, Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated that Pakistan would continue attacks on Afghanistan as part of an operation aimed at countering terrorism. Days before the India-Taliban talks, Pakistani airstrikes killed dozens in eastern Afghanistan, leading the Taliban government to condemn the strikes as violations of its sovereignty.This marks a sharp decline in relations since Kabul's fall in 2021, when a top Pakistani intelligence official was among the first foreign guests to meet the Taliban regime. At that time, many saw Kabul's fall as a strategic setback for India. However, as Mr. Kugelman notes, while Pakistan isn't the only factor driving India's outreach to the Taliban, moving closer to a critical long-time Pakistani asset that has now turned on its former patron is a significant win for India in its competition with Pakistan.Beyond countering Pakistan, India aims to strengthen connectivity and access to Central Asia, which it cannot reach directly by land due to Pakistan's refusal of transit rights. Afghanistan is key to this goal.

無論喀布爾的政權(quán)是君主制、GCZY還是伊斯蘭教，德里和喀布爾之間都有一種天然的親切感。有趣的是，在阿富汗和巴基斯坦的緊張局勢(shì)不斷加劇的情況下，印度和塔利班之間的關(guān)系似乎正在緩和。巴基斯坦聲稱，巴基斯坦強(qiáng)硬派塔利班（TTP）在阿富汗設(shè)有庇護(hù)所。7 月，巴基斯坦國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)卡瓦賈-阿西夫（Khawaja Asif）表示，巴基斯坦將繼續(xù)襲擊阿富汗，作為反恐行動(dòng)的一部分。在印度-塔利班會(huì)談的前幾天，巴基斯坦的空襲在阿富汗東部造成數(shù)十人死亡，導(dǎo)致塔利班政府譴責(zé)空襲侵犯了其主權(quán)。這標(biāo)志著自 2021 年喀布爾淪陷以來兩國(guó)關(guān)系的急劇下滑，當(dāng)時(shí)巴基斯坦的一名高級(jí)情報(bào)官員是首批會(huì)見塔利班政權(quán)的外賓之一。當(dāng)時(shí)，許多人認(rèn)為喀布爾的陷落是印度的戰(zhàn)略挫折。然而，正如庫格爾曼先生所指出的那樣，雖然巴基斯坦并不是推動(dòng)印度與塔利班接觸的唯一因素，但接近巴基斯坦長(zhǎng)期以來的一個(gè)重要資產(chǎn)，而這個(gè)資產(chǎn)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)背叛了它曾經(jīng)的靠山，這是印度在與巴基斯坦的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中取得的一個(gè)重大勝利。除了對(duì)抗巴基斯坦之外，印度還希望加強(qiáng)與中亞地區(qū)的聯(lián)系和通道，由于巴基斯坦拒絕給予過境權(quán)，印度無法通過陸路直接到達(dá)中亞地區(qū)。阿富汗是實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的關(guān)鍵。

One strategy involves collaborating with Iran on the Chabahar port development to improve access to Central Asia via Afghanistan. Engaging more closely with the Taliban leadership, which supports India's plans, could enhance Afghanistan's own trade and connectivity lixs.India's recent outreach advances its core interests in Taliban-led Afghanistan: preventing terrorism threats to India, deepening connectivity with Iran and Central Asia, maintaining public goodwill through aid, and countering a struggling Pakistan.However, there are potential downsides. The main risk lies with the Taliban itself—a violent actor with close ties to international terror groups that has shown little reform since the 1990s. While India may hope that engaging the Taliban will reduce threats to its interests, trust remains an issue. This unsettling question will hover over India as it cautiously pursues this complex relationship.Despite concerns over the Taliban's treatment of women, Mr. Prasad sees no downsides to India's current engagement. He argues that isolating the Taliban won't help the Afghan people, and that engagement might pressure the government to improve its behavior. The Taliban craves recognition, which they know will only come after internal reforms, such as reinstating women's rights to education, work, and political participation. ? by Accomplished_Hippo11 (↑ -2/ ↓ 0)

其中一項(xiàng)戰(zhàn)略是與伊朗合作開發(fā)恰巴哈爾港，以改善經(jīng)由阿富汗進(jìn)入中亞的通道。塔利班領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層支持印度的計(jì)劃，與塔利班進(jìn)行更密切的接觸可以加強(qiáng)阿富汗自身的貿(mào)易和互聯(lián)互通聯(lián)系。印度最近的外聯(lián)活動(dòng)推進(jìn)了其在塔利班領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的阿富汗的核心利益：防止恐怖主義對(duì)印度的威脅、深化與伊朗和中亞的互聯(lián)互通、通過援助維持公眾的善意，以及對(duì)抗步履維艱的巴基斯坦。主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于塔利班本身--一個(gè)與國(guó)際恐怖組織關(guān)系密切的暴力組織，自 20 世紀(jì) 90 年代以來幾乎沒有進(jìn)行過改革。雖然印度可能希望與塔利班接觸能減少對(duì)其利益的威脅，但信任仍然是個(gè)問題。盡管印度對(duì)塔利班對(duì)待婦女的方式表示擔(dān)憂，但普拉薩德先生認(rèn)為印度目前的接觸沒有任何壞處。他認(rèn)為，孤立塔利班無助于阿富汗人民，接觸可能會(huì)給政府施壓，迫使其改善自己的行為。塔利班渴望得到承認(rèn)，他們知道只有在進(jìn)行內(nèi)部改革（如恢復(fù)婦女的受教育權(quán)、工作權(quán)和政治參與權(quán)）后才能得到承認(rèn)。

印度 塔利班 阿富汗

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